Based on Kenya’s current voter listing when translated into tribal voting blocs, the Jubilee coalition has an overwhelming advantage against the NASA coalition. If Jubilee’s strongholds comprising the Kikuyu (4.6 million), Kalenjin (2.4 million), Meru (970,000), Embu (233,000) Mbeere (107,000) and Tharaka (91,000) were to give Jubilee 90 per cent of their vote; this would build a solid starting base of approximately 7.6 million votes.
Based on 2013 patterns; attainable and realistic hypothesis; If the ruling coalition was to further garner 60 per cent from Northern Kenya (370,000), 50 per cent from Kuria (45,000), 50 per cent from the Samburu and Borana (92,000), 30 per cent from western Kenya (800,000), 20 per cent from Kamba’s (423,000), 50 per cent from Maasai (182,000), 40 per cent from Turkanas (99,000), 40 per cent from Kisiis (470,000), 30 per cent from Taitas (172,000) and another 50 per cent from the other smaller communities comprising Kenyan Asians, Europeans, Ndorobos, Njemps and others estimated at approximately 122,000, their vote tally would total approximately 10.6 million Votes representing approximately 54 per cent of the vote.
This is significant because based on approximately 19.6 million registered voters, this would surpass the 50 per cent+1 threshold of approximately 9.8 million votes thus guaranteeing Jubilee an outright round-one win.
Uhuru Kenyatta and william ruto expected to win big
On the other hand NASA are expected to get 46% here is the data breakdown
Conversely, if NASA’s traditional strongholds of Luo (2.2 million) would accord them 95 per cent of the vote totaling approximately 2 million votes, Luhya (2.7 million) accords NASA 70 per cent totaling 1.9 million, Abasuba 67,000 (95 per cent), Kamba 1.7 million (80 per cent), Mijikenda 586,000 (70 per cent) this would provide the NASA presidential candidate with a starting base of approximately 6.2 million votes.
If additionally, NASA garnered Kisii 700,000 (60 per cent), Turkana 148,000 (60 per cent), Taita 120,000 (60 per cent), Maasai 182,000 (50 per cent), Kuria 45,000 (50 per cent), Samburu and Borana 92,000 (50 per cent), Northern Kenya 245,000 (40 per cent), average 8 per cent from Central totaling 356,000, average 20 per cent from Kalenjin totaling 463,000 and approximately 122,000 from other smaller tribes, NASA would garner approximately 1.8 million additional votes. This would bring their tally to approximately 8.8 million votes representing approximately 46 per cent of the vote.
Raila is projected to lose in round 1.
Based on 2013 patterns; attainable and realistic hypothesis; If the ruling coalition was to further garner 60 per cent from Northern Kenya (370,000), 50 per cent from Kuria (45,000), 50 per cent from the Samburu and Borana (92,000), 30 per cent from western Kenya (800,000), 20 per cent from Kamba’s (423,000), 50 per cent from Maasai (182,000), 40 per cent from Turkanas (99,000), 40 per cent from Kisiis (470,000), 30 per cent from Taitas (172,000) and another 50 per cent from the other smaller communities comprising Kenyan Asians, Europeans, Ndorobos, Njemps and others estimated at approximately 122,000, their vote tally would total approximately 10.6 million Votes representing approximately 54 per cent of the vote.
This is significant because based on approximately 19.6 million registered voters, this would surpass the 50 per cent+1 threshold of approximately 9.8 million votes thus guaranteeing Jubilee an outright round-one win.
Uhuru Kenyatta and william ruto expected to win big
On the other hand NASA are expected to get 46% here is the data breakdown
Conversely, if NASA’s traditional strongholds of Luo (2.2 million) would accord them 95 per cent of the vote totaling approximately 2 million votes, Luhya (2.7 million) accords NASA 70 per cent totaling 1.9 million, Abasuba 67,000 (95 per cent), Kamba 1.7 million (80 per cent), Mijikenda 586,000 (70 per cent) this would provide the NASA presidential candidate with a starting base of approximately 6.2 million votes.
If additionally, NASA garnered Kisii 700,000 (60 per cent), Turkana 148,000 (60 per cent), Taita 120,000 (60 per cent), Maasai 182,000 (50 per cent), Kuria 45,000 (50 per cent), Samburu and Borana 92,000 (50 per cent), Northern Kenya 245,000 (40 per cent), average 8 per cent from Central totaling 356,000, average 20 per cent from Kalenjin totaling 463,000 and approximately 122,000 from other smaller tribes, NASA would garner approximately 1.8 million additional votes. This would bring their tally to approximately 8.8 million votes representing approximately 46 per cent of the vote.
Raila is projected to lose in round 1.
