An analysis of the 19.6 million eligible voters has put President Uhuru Kenyatta ahead of NASA presidential candidate Raila Odinga by a commanding 1.2 million votes.
In what could pose a big challenge in the Opposition leader’s state House quest, Uhuru would defeat him with 52.2 per cent against Raila’s 47.7 per cent, avoiding a run off.
On the assumption that the voting patterns of 2013 remain the same at the August 8 polls, Uhuru would garner 8,568,551 million votes against his forefront challenger Raila who would get 7,334,697 votes.
2017numbers favourUhuruif votepatterns remainthesame
Uhuruwouldgarner8,568,551millionvotes againsthisforefrontchallengerRailawhowould get7,334,697votes.
If Raila is to be allocated all the 483,981 votes NASA co-principal Musalia Mudavadi got in 2013, the presidential candidate would narrow the 1.2 million votes difference with Uhuru to 749,873 votes.
This is only if the voter turn-out in all the 47 counties and the voting patterns of 2013 replicate themselves in the August 8 polls.
In the last general election, President Uhuru Kenyatta beat Raila-then running under the Cord coalition by 832,887 votes but narrowly managed to avoid a run-off by just 8,000 votes.
Uhuru's victory was attributed to huge voter turn-out in the Jubilee strongholds of Central and Rift Valley.
The Opposition coalition was then hurt by poor turnout in its strongholds of the vote-rich western Kenya, Nyanza and Coast regions.
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A projection of the August 8 presidential contest shows either coalition must push for huge voter turn-out in their loyal bedrocks to win the election.
Raila has already launched the 'adopt a polling station' strategy to push his supporters to come out and cast their votes and protect them from rigging schemes and turn tables against Jubilee.
However, a lot has changed since the last election where, for instance, three 2013 presidential candidates who got a combined 129,247 have dropped their bid and support Uhuru.
These are Peter Kenneth, Paul Muite and Martha Karua.
There have also been defections across the country majorly at the Coast and in Western Kenya where elected Opposition leaders have moved to Uhuru's Jubilee Party.
The Opposition also appears to have made inroads in Rift Valley which gave Uhuru a good chunk of votes for his election victory in 2013.
The independent electoral and boundaries commission on Tuesday announced that 19,611,423 voters are eligible to participate in the August 8 polls.
