ANC leader Musalia Mudavadi — the inspiration behind NASA — and his think tanks say ODM boss Raila Odinga is unlikely to defeat President Uhuru Kenyatta.
The ANC strategy document argues the best ticket is Mudavadi for President, with Wiper leader Kalonzo Musyoka as his running mate — and Raila backing both of them.
The document was presented to the NASA Coordinating Committee and obtained exclusively by the Star.
The Mudavadi wing warns that Jubilee is still ahead of NASA, according to analysis of the latest voter registration data.
The ANC document titled Crunching Numbers 2017 says NASA trails Jubilee in the IEBC vote count by more than 100,000 votes. It puts NASA’s numbers at 7,868,373 voters to Jubilee’s 7,951,008.
Of these, 4.12 million voters are in 10 swing counties, the strategy paper says.
“This leads us to the conclusions that to use the 2013 elections outcome to determine the NASA 2017 tickets would be to court defeat,” Mudavadi’s team argues.
The strategy says the NASA combination that can remove Uhuru must be able to:
1 ) Increase voter turnout in NASA strongholds by 95 per cent;
2 ) Raid as much as 40 per cent of the votes from Jubilee bastions;
3 ) Win over 60 per cent of the vote in swing counties;
4 ) Create the least voter resentment and apathy in NASA-controlled regions.
